Posts Tagged with "bets"
#4a1: A vicious cycle of big bets, the virtuous cycle of small bets.
The larger the change, the more confidence you need in that change to offset its risk. Even more so if the change is irreversible. Often, you'll seek to gain confidence by collecting more data to support your decision.Read more →
#4a2: Small bets vs big bets, in practice.
Compare the approaches of making many small bets and making few big bets. In a simple, non-interacting model (unlike our complex world) with infinite time and resources (which you no doubt lack), the expected results of both approaches are the same. The real world is not such a model.Read more →
#17: Take a portfolio-based approach to risk.
As with shares on a financial market, projects carry compensatory risk is proportion to their value. The greater value — or reward — a successful project would deliver to an organisation, the greater the risk of failure; the easy yet valuable projects are likely to have been already completed.Read more →
